Roth Conversions in a Down Market: Smart Strategy or Costly Mistake?
Jul 07, 2026When the market drops, most investors feel the same thing: anxiety. Watching account values fall can make even the most disciplined retiree wonder if they should be doing something different. But for those who are approaching retirement or already retired, a down market may not only be something to survive. It may also create a planning opportunity.
One of the biggest opportunities discussed in this episode is the Roth conversion.
A Roth conversion allows you to move money from a tax-deferred retirement account into a Roth account. You pay taxes on the amount converted today, but future qualified withdrawals from the Roth can be tax-free. That sounds attractive, but the real question is not simply whether Roth conversions are good or bad. The real question is when, how much, and whether it makes sense for your personal retirement plan.
Leibel Sternbach explains it this way: taxes on retirement accounts are likely going to be paid at some point. The question is how much tax will be paid and when it will be paid. If your account value is temporarily down because the market has dropped, converting at that point may allow you to pay taxes on a lower value. In that sense, the market decline can create what feels like a “discount” on the tax cost of the conversion.
But that does not mean everyone should rush to do a Roth conversion.
One of the most important points in the episode is that Roth conversions need to be planned carefully. If you are in your peak earning years and making more money than you ever have before, converting too much could push you into a higher tax bracket. That may mean paying more to the IRS now than you would if you waited until your income dropped in retirement.
This is why Leibel warns against making retirement tax decisions based on general advice. A Roth conversion that makes sense for one person could be a mistake for someone else. Your income, age, tax bracket, investment allocation, Social Security strategy, Medicare premiums, and future required minimum distributions all matter.
The episode also highlights another common retirement trap: assuming that taxes will automatically go down once you retire. Many retirees are surprised to learn that up to 85% of Social Security can be taxable, depending on their income. Interest from CDs, high-yield savings accounts, dividends, pensions, withdrawals, and investment income can all affect your overall tax picture. Higher income can also increase Medicare premiums.
That means a Roth conversion should never be viewed in isolation. It has to fit into the larger retirement structure.
Leibel also discusses the importance of staying calm during market volatility. The people who are able to remain steady when the headlines are scary are usually not guessing. They have already done the work. They have a plan. They know where their income will come from. They know which accounts to draw from. They know when to rebalance, when to harvest tax losses, and when to take advantage of opportunities.
That is where a bucketing or time-diversification strategy can be helpful. The idea is to structure your money so that near-term income needs are protected, while longer-term money has time to recover and grow. When your retirement income plan is built correctly, a bad week in the market does not have to force a bad sale.
The key takeaway is simple: you do not need to predict the future. You need a structure.
Before making a Roth conversion, changing your investment allocation, or reacting to market volatility, take the time to understand your full retirement tax picture. The smartest move may not be the most obvious one, and the wrong timing could cost you.
To find out whether Roth conversions, tax-loss harvesting, or a bucketing strategy make sense for your retirement plan, schedule a consultation with Leibel Sternbach and the Yields4U team at https://www.yields4u.com/pages/book.
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